It doesn't take an NFL expert to know that the Geno Smith-led Raiders are not looking good this season. The team is 2-8 and the offense has yet to build the momentum or mount the turnaround that onlookers believed veteran head coach Pete Carroll could foster.
Certainly not all, but some of the blame for this falls on Smith, whose performance has been a problem for Vegas. He has thrown for 12 touchdowns but also 13 interceptions—sometimes three in one game—and, as of Tuesday morning, ranks third-to-last in QBR (32.6), ahead of only rookies Dillon Gabriel and Cam Ward. Even the Jets' Justin Fields, who was recently benched in favor of backup Tyrod Tyler, sits above him.
Smith was always going to be a short-term solution for Vegas, a franchise still in search of its long-term quarterback. But such play nonetheless begs the question: could the team cut its losses and move on? And who in their quarterback room could even take over if that were the case?
Geno Smith contract details
Smith arrived in Vegas in March via a trade with the Seahawks, the team with which he spent the 2020-2024 seasons. Seattle received a third-round draft pick in return.
At the time, Smith was entering the final season of a three-year, $75 million deal with the Seahawks. Shortly after arriving in Vegas, however, the Raiders signed him to a two-year extension worth up to $85.5 million, including $66.5 million guaranteed. That deal, in theory, keeps him locked up in Vegas through the 2027 season.
In 2025, he his earning a $24 million base salary, plus a $16 million roster bonus and $10,080 workout bonus for an overall cap hit of around $40 million, per .
Could the Raiders get out of the deal?
Although it would cost them, there is a way out of the deal for Vegas. Smith has a guaranteed salary of $18.5 million coming in 2026 no matter what, and could add another $8 million to that haul if he's still on the roster on the third day of the league year next March. But, as ESPN's Dan Graziano pointed out earlier this month, that $18.5 million is all the dead money the Raiders would have to carry on their 2026 cap if they cut Smith before the third day of the league year. All things considered, that's not that bad.
Who else is in the Raiders QB room?
Behind Smith is AFC North veteran Kenny Pickett, whom the Raiders acquired after Aidan O'Connell, the initial backup, fractured his wrist during the preseason.
Neither O'Connell nor Pickett has the playing experience that Smith has, and their thriving in an otherwise difficult offensive situation seems unlikely. But you have to wonder if and/or when Carroll will decide he's seen enough and give someone else a chance to possibly right a sinking ship.
That said, it would almost certainly be Pickett over O'Connell. The Raiders opened the latter's 21-day practice window on Oct. 29, but have not yet activated him to the active roster. Should the window lapse, O'Connell will move back to IR for the remainder of the season.
What about the draft?
That is the other big question. Unless something crazy happens between now and the end of the season, the Raiders will most likely have themselves a top-10 pick, which they could definitely use to replace Smith. At 35, Geno was never going to be Vegas's quarterback of the future, but the team might find itself moving on faster if execs get the chance to grab a first-round signal-caller.
So yes, although it would spell doom for Smith, maybe it wouldn't be the worst thing for the Raiders if the season devolved enough to snag the No. 1 pick.
