We were on our way to a profitable Week 10 of the Road to 272 Bets, needing only a win on Sunday Night Football or Monday Night Football. Unfortunately, neither went our way which has led to another losing week.
It's time to move on to Week 11 of the 2025 NFL season and see if we can find some momentum. Betting on every single game isn't for the faint of heart, but this is what I sign up for every year. Let's take a step in the right direction this week. I have my picks locked in, it's time to dive into them.
Road to 272 Bets Week 10 Record
7-7 (-0.34 units)
Road to 272 Bets Season-to-Date Record
65-83-1 (-15.87 units)NFL Week 11 Best Bets for Every GameJets vs. Patriots Prediction
You don't need me to tell you how much better the Patriots are than the Jets. We all know this, and the 11.5-point spread indicates as such. The reason why I'm laying this many points in a divisional matchup on a short week is that this is a stylistic nightmare for the Jets. The weakness of the Patriots' defense is their secondary, ranking 26th in opponent yards per pass attempt, giving up 6.9 yards per throw. Their strength is stopping the run. They haven't allowed a 54-yard rusher yet this season, and they rank in the top 10 in both opponent rush EPA and opponent rush success rate.
Considering the Jets are averaging 19 fewer passing yards per game compared to the next-worst team, I struggle to think of how New York will move the ball against the Patriots' defense. I'll lay the points with New England on Thursday night.
Commanders vs. Dolphins Prediction
I'll bet the OVER in the final European game of the season. I'm not looking too far into the Dolphins' strong defensive performance against the Bills last week. At the end of the day, these have been two of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Dolphins are 27th and the Commanders are 30th in opponent EPA per play. They're also both in the bottom 10 in defensive DVOA and opponent success rate.
Even with Jayden Daniels out of the lineup for the Commanders, I expect both offenses to be able to move the ball enough in this game to cash the OVER.
Bengals vs. Steelers Prediction
Joe Flacco has pulled off enough magic for the Bengals that people have been fooled into thinking they're better than they are. Make no mistake about it, the Bengals are a bottom-five team in the NFL. They're 31st in Net Yards per Play (-1.1) and last in Net Yards per Play (-2.3) when playing on the road. They're also 28th in DVOA and dead last in opponent EPA per play.
If you're scared to lay 5.5 points on the Steelers after their Sunday night stinker against the Chargers, but they're far better than the Bengals in this spot. The DVOA numbers still believe in this team, ranking 13th in that metric. It's a great buy-low spot on Pittsburgh.
Panthers vs. Falcons Prediction
I bet against the Panthers last week, and I plan to do the same this week. Despite their solid record, the Panthers have been one of the worst teams in the NFL by most metrics, including ranking 27th in overall DVOA, 26th in EPA per play, 23rd in opponent EPA per play, and 29th in Net Yards per Play (-0.8).
Meanwhile, the Falcons are in the opposite situation, having played much better this season despite their 3-6 record. They're 18th, 25th, 17th, and 12th in the aforementioned statistics. Sure, they lost to the Panthers in Carolina earlier this year, but now they return home in what's a must-win game if they want any hope at all of making it to the postseason. It's time for them to get their revenge on Bryce Young.
Texans vs. Titans Prediction
Let's not allow the BYE week to cause us to forget how bad this Titans team is. Sure, the Texans will likely be without C.J. Stroud for another week, but their defense alone, which remains one of the best in the league, is good enough to lead them to a win and cover against the Titans.
In case you forgot, the Titans are last in DVOA, net yards per play, and EPA per play. In a season where the bad teams are especially bad, the Titans are the worst of them and it hasn't even been close. There are few teams I wouldn't lay this number on against the Titans, and the Texans certainly aren't one of them.
Packers vs. Giants Prediction
The New York Giants have moved on from Brian Daboll, and Jaxson Dart is in concussion protocol. Now, there's very little left in the tank for the Giants besides their pass rush. Now, they have to take on one of the most complete teams in the NFL.
Some people will back the Giants because of the narrative that teams will come out fighting the week after firing their head coach, but at the end of the day, I have to look at the numbers, and Jaxson Dart has been able to drag them to being in games that had no business being in. If he's out on Sunday, the Packers are going to roll.
Bears vs. Vikings Prediction
The Chicago Bears continue to find ways to barely scrape by against bad football teams. Late and improbable wins against the Raiders, Bengals, Commanders, and Giants aren't nearly enough to convince me that they're as good as their 6-3 record indicates. They're 24th in DVOA and 23rd in net Yards per Play at -0.5. Now that they're schedule becomes tougher, they're a prime regression candidate that's going to come crashing back down to earth.
The Vikings have problems of their own, but their defense is the best unit in this game, and even with J.J. McCarthy at quarterback, they have a receiving core that can torch this Bears' secondary.
Buccaneers vs. Bills Prediction
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers' defense has quietly played fantastic defensive football of late. Since Week 6, they're fifth in opponent EPA per play and fourth in opponent success rate. They've also been able to stop the run this season, ranking second in opponent rush success rate in that same time frame. That's great news for them this weekend when they face a Bills team that gets 39.86% of its offensive yards from running the football, the fifth-highest percentage in the league.
The Buccaneers' offense has trended in the opposite direction, ranking 24th in EPA per play and 21st in success rate since Week 6. A plethora of injuries is largely to blame for that, but they don't seem like they're going to get much healthier this weekend.
I'm surprised to see a total this high in a game that involves a team whose defense has been far superior to its offense of late. Josh Allen and the Bills' offense haven't been good enough lately to convince me this game is going OVER.
Chargers vs. Jaguars Prediction
I'm continuing to fade the Jacksonville Jaguars. I pointed them out as the most fraudulent team in the NFL a few short weeks ago, and now they haven't covered in four straight weeks. I will once again bet against the team that I think is the most overvalued squad in the betting market. The Jaguars are 17th in DVOA and 27th in Net Yards per Play. Trevor Lawrence continues to bring this team down, ranking 31st amongst starting quarterbacks in expected points added plus completion percentage over expected, above only Cam Ward and Dillon Gabriel.
The Chargers have problems on the offensive line, but their defense has woken up after a bad stretch of games. Over the past three weeks, their defense has led the NFL in opponent EPA per play and opponent success rate. They're going to cause Lawrence and this Jaguars offense a ton of problems.
Seahawks vs. Rams Prediction
I'm putting my money where my mouth is on the Seattle Seahawks being the best team in the NFL. They lead the league in DVOA and Net Yards per Play, sporting a Net Yards per Play of +0.4 yards more than any other team in the league. Sam Darnold also leads all teams in EPA+CPOE composite. They've managed to do all that despite ranking 23rd in average turnover margin at -0.4. The lack of forcing turnovers has hurt their EPA numbers, whereas the Rams haven't played as well on a play-by-play basis, but their +0.8 average turnover differential boosts their EPA numbers.
If the turnover variance turns in the Seahawks' favor, they're going to quickly look like the team to beat in the NFC. I think they prove just how good they are by beating the Rams in Week 11.
49ers vs. Cardinals Prediction
I'm not very high on the San Francisco 49ers, who showed their true colors last week against the Rams. The metrics show the 49ers as the definition of an average team, ranking 15th in both net yards per play and DVOA. Defensively, they have fallen to 26th in opponent EPA per play and 30th in success rate. Only the Cowboys and Bengals defense ranks worse in success rate. They may be able to hit their stride when they get healthy later in the season, but things are quietly looking dire for the 49ers right now.
The Cardinals also haven't been much to write home about this season, but they're getting a field goal's worth of points against a 49ers team that is falling apart, and it seems. I'll take the field goal in this NFC West battle.
Ravens vs. Browns Prediction
This Ravens team has been a completely different unit since their Week 7 BYE. Since Week 8, they're now 10th in EPA, ninth in success rate, sixth in opponent EPA, and ninth in opponent success rate. They still have some work to do if they want to return to the elite form we expected from them heading into the season, but they're certainly trending in the right direction.
Meanwhile, the Browns' offense has been the worst in the NFL, and I have no faith in them being able to score against any competent defense the league has to offer. The Browns are averaging the fewest yards per play at 4.1, while also ranking 30th in EPA per play and 32nd in success rate. Their defense, as we've seen, can't carry them to wins by itself, especially against a hot Ravens team.
I'll back Baltimore to win and cover.
Chiefs vs. Broncos Prediction
The Denver Broncos may just be the fraudulent team in the NFL at this point in the season. Their defense is truly elite, but their offense is downright atrocious, ranking 19th in offensive DVOA, 18th in EPA, 28th in success rate, and 19th in yards per play, averaging 5.3 yards per snap. Bo Nix may not be the answer at quarterback. He's 25th in EPA+CPOE composite, which is behind the likes of Carson Wentz, Spencer Rattle, and Caleb Williams.
Meanwhile, this is a great spot to buy into the Chiefs. Andy Reid has historically been extremely good off a BYE week, and while their record this season may not be extremely impressive, their metrics have been far better than they were last year. They rank fifth in overall DVOA and third in EPA per play. I'm surprised they aren't bigger favorites in this spot.
Lions vs. Eagles Prediction
I'm still not completely sold on the Eagles. Meanwhile, the Lions continue to somehow be underrated in the betting market. We all know how efficient and dynamic their offense is, but their defense has been unbelievable this season, ranking fifth in defensive DVOA, 10th in opponent EPA per play, and seventh in opponent yards per play, giving up just 5.0 yards per snap.
The Eagles still have plenty of issues, especially on defense. They've been better of late, but if you're going to give me the Lions at plus-money in this matchup, I'm going to take it.
Cowboys vs. Raiders Prediction
I might look stupid for writing this, but I don't think the Raiders are as bad as the betting market has treated them. They're 19th in net yards per play, but have a Net Yards per Play of +0.2 when playing on their home field. Their defense has also been solid this season, far better than the Cowboys, whose defense has been one of the worst in the league.
The Cowboys' offense is good enough to win this game, but their defense keeps them from pulling away from any team. The Raiders are going to be live to keep this interconference matchup within a field goal.
