The Big 12 promised to be an unpredictable, wide-open race once again in 2025, and so far that has played out. Texas Tech made a statement on Saturday, however, moving to 9–1 (6–1 in Big 12 play) by handing BYU (8–1, 5–1) its first loss of the season. With the win, the Red Raiders have a slight edge in the standings over the league’s other one-loss teams—the Cougars along with Cincinnati—and earn an important tiebreaker against BYU in the Big 12 race.
The Cougars debuted at No. 7 in the initial CFP rankings, released on Tuesday night. Texas Tech debuted in the rankings one spot below at No. 8. With fellow Big 12 power Utah in the mix at No. 13—all three Big 12 programs are ranked ahead of any ACC or Group of 5 program—the conference appears to be in healthy shape to land at least two bids in the CFP. Even so, Saturday’s game in Lubbock was a critical opportunity for both teams to take a big step towards locking up spaces in the conference championship game. The Red Raiders passed that test with flying colors.
With in town and Patrick Mahomes serving as guest picker, Saturday was a big event in Lubbock. Let’s take a look at how Saturday’s game played out, and what it means for both teams in the playoff race.
How Texas Tech defeated BYU
Texas Tech had been the juggernaut and BYU the wily escape artist. On Saturday, however, the Cougars weren’t able to sneak out another win, as the Red Raiders went up early, taking advantage of BYU mistakes, and kept the pressure on throughout the game.
Joey McGuire’s Red Raiders have made a habit of jumping all over opponents early, outscoring opposing teams 119–13 in the first quarter this season entering Saturday’s game. That played out once again, as Texas Tech went up 10–0 in the first frame, despite struggling on offense against a stout Cougars defense. BYU muffed a punt return after the Red Raiders’ first drive, giving the ball back to Behren Morton and the TTU offense in the red zone. The defense stepped up, pushing Tech 12 yards back, but Stone Harrington converted a 47-yard field goal. The Tech offense got into gear on its next possession, marching 92 yards in 12 plays with Morton finding Caleb Douglas for the game’s first touchdown.
From there, Saturday’s game looked like a sizable mismatch. Texas Tech outgained BYU 368 yards to 255, won the turnover battle 3–0 and converted 7-of-18 third downs, while the Cougars managed just 3-of-14.
The Red Raiders running backs controlled the day, with Cameron Dickey and J’Koby Williams combining for 198 yards (5.5 per carry) and a score while Morton outplayed BYU’s vaunted freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier, who managed 188 yards with a late touchdown and interception. Morton finished with 219 yards and a score. BYU mostly kept Bachmeier upright, allowing just one sack, but the Red Raiders played sound defense and linebacker Jacob Rodriguez had the day’s biggest defense play—an impressive interception that led to another Harrington field goal that pushed the score to 19–0.
How Texas Tech’s win impacts College Football Playoff race
The Red Raiders are now the clear favorite to reach the field out of the Big 12, and could be in good shape to host a first-round game. Entering Saturday, Texas Tech ranked fourth in ESPN’s SP+ and 11th in the network’s Football Power Index. has the Red Raiders as their third-ranked team, behind only Indiana and Ohio State. Efficiency metrics and other advanced models love what Texas Tech has put on paper this season, and the selection committee seems to be similarly impressed based on their No. 8 ranking last week, just behind undefeated BYU and ahead of Oregon.
With the win, the Red Raiders have now defeated the league’s two other highly-ranked playoff contenders by a combined score of 63–17. Even a four-point loss at last year’s Big 12 representative in the CFP, Arizona State, doesn’t look terrible; the Sun Devils have disappointed this season, but were mostly healthy against Texas Tech, while injuries have impacted the team late in the season.
The Red Raiders have a very manageable finish to the year, at home against UCF before a trip to West Virginia to wrap up the regular season slate. The Red Raiders may still have some wiggle room to get into the CFP with a loss, especially if it comes in the conference title game—though no team wants to play with fire that way.
Texas Tech’s 2025 football schedule
.
Date
Opponent
Score
Aug. 30
vs. Arkansas Pine-Bluff
W 67–7
Sept. 6
vs. Kent State
W 62–14
Sept. 13
vs. Oregon State
W 45–14
Sept. 20
at No. 13 Utah
W 34–10
Oct. 4
at Houston
W 35–11
Oct. 11
vs. Kansas
W 42–7
Oct. 18
at Arizona State
L 26–22
Oct. 25
vs. Oklahoma State
W 42–0
Nov. 1
at Kansas State
W 43–20
Nov. 8
vs. No. 7 BYU
W 29–7
Nov. 15
vs. UCF
TBD
Nov. 29
at West Virginia
TBD
Can BYU still make the playoff after Saturday’s loss?
It may be tricky, but based on the selection committee’s early review of the Cougars, they still have a solid shot. The drop off from an undefeated Big 12 team to one with a loss against its main rival for the conference’s likely automatic bid is a significant one. However, the fact that the Cougars were ranked ahead of a Texas Tech team that had been more impressive for much of the year and an Oregon team that profiles like one of the sport’s best is a good sign that the committee takes BYU seriously beyond its 8–0 start.
The Cougars have a much tougher finish to the year than the Red Raiders, with a home game against a quiet Big 12 contender—TCU—before a trip to the league’s third team with just one conference loss, Cincinnati. They finish against a middling UCF team. Run the table, and BYU will punch a ticket to a likely rematch with Texas Tech in Dallas—and even a tight loss there and 11–2 finish might be enough to get the Cougs to the CFP, à la SMU a year ago. There is very little room for error for Kalani Sitake’s team now, though.
BYU’s 2025 football schedule
Date Opponent Score
Aug. 30
vs. Portland State
W 69–0
Sept. 6
vs. Stanford
W 27–3
Sept. 20
at ECU
W 34–13
Sept. 27
at Colorado
W 24–21
Oct. 3
vs. West Virginia
W 38–24
Oct. 11
at Arizona
W 33–27 (OT)
Oct. 18
vs. No. 13 Utah
W 24–21
Oct. 25
at Iowa State
W 41–27
Nov. 8
at No. 8 Texas Tech
L 29–7
Nov. 15
vs. TCU
TBD
Nov. 22
at Cincinatti
TBD
Nov. 29
vs. UCF
TBD
s postseason projections for Texas Tech, BYU
’s Pat Forde was very close on both Big 12 programs after Week 10, ahead of Tuesday’s selection committee release of the rankings, slotting BYU in at No. 8, one spot ahead of Texas Tech. Both programs wound up a spot higher, ahead of No. 9 Oregon (which Forde had at No. 7).
In his forward-looking projections after Week 10, Bryan Fischer had the Red Raiders as the final Big 12 program left standing, presumably aided by a win on Saturday. Texas Tech is in the same No. 8 spot in his field as it currently occupies in the committee’s rankings, in line to host No. 9 Notre Dame to open the playoff with the winner set to face No. 1 Ohio State.
BYU, meanwhile, is penciled in to face another team that would be in the bracket as of the first rankings release—No. 14 Virginia—in the Pop-Tarts Bowl, an entertaining consolation spot.
Fischer updates his live Week 11 bracket throughout Saturday’s action, so check back as he updates his projections following the Red Raiders’ win.
